On March 22, 2023, the Securities and Exchange Commission issued Coinbase a Wells notice, indicating the stafff’s intent to recommend that the Commission bring an enforcement action against Coinbase. In an SEC investigation, a target receives a Wells notice whenever the Enforcement staff decides, even preliminarily, to recommnd charges. The target is then entitled, under SEC rules, to make a Wells submission.
Shorty after Coinbase received the Wells notice, it posted a screed on its website about the Wells notice and its intent to challenge any SEC charges. Their response was so quick and detailed, it makes me wonder if they had known it was coming all along.
On April 19, 2023, Coinbase made both a written and video Wells submission.
So what happens next? I can’t say for sure, but I can make a fairly educated guess. I predict that the Commission is going to sue Cointbase in federal court sometime in May, or shortly thereafter, unless one of the Commissioners is forced to recuse themselves from the matter or there is a seismic shift in the Commission’s thinking about Coinbase’s activities. Of course, it is possible that Coinbase or one of the Commissioners is able to muck up the process a bit, but that won’t change the outcome, just its timing. Typically, the Commission meets on Thursday afternoons to review Enforcement recommendations, and it takes about two to four weeks time to get on the Commissions calendar once the staff has prepared all of the requisite memos and other paperwork and gotten the blessings of the other Commission Divisions and the Office of General Counsel. So if my view about the timeline is accurate, the Enforcement staff has probably already circulated its papers and memos to the other SEC Divisions for review and will be meeting with the Commission to discuss the case sometime later this month. After the Commission votes to approve the staff’s recommendation, which I expect it will in this instance, it’s off to the races.
Why am I so confident that the Commission will sue Coinbase? Well that is pretty straight forward. The Commission has sued similarly situated actors for the conduct Coinbase engaged in.
So what about the Wells submission by Coinbase? It’s certainly possible it will move some Commissioners or staff to change their views, but I doubt it. The written Wells wasn’t particularly persuasive, was way too long (73 pages), was boring, and basically missed the mark. If your lead argument is that “an Enforcement Action Would Present Major Programmatic Risk to the Commission” you probably have lost. Arguments that this violates due process or that the action is foreclosed by the major questions doctrine are the usual last resort for cases of this sort. Of course, the SEC has sued others for similar conduct, so there’s that.
And I am still scratching my head about the video Wells submission. I had never seen one of those before (though there have been rumors that some unsophisticated defendants had made some interesting videos in years past) so I was quite curious how compelling it would be and how it would look. I am not quite sure why Coinbase proceeded this way, but the abbreviated version posted on their website is more like an informercial than some persuasive narrative that will move anyone to believe Coinbase has a winning argument. I am pretty sure that it will be greeted with a Bronx cheer by at least three Commissioners.
A couple of other points. Since last summer, Coinbase has mounted a public relations campaign against the SEC. During that time, Coinbase’s General Counsel has, at least in my view, been acting quite out of his senses, making antagonistic statements about the SEC and spending a good bit of his time trying the case in the media. Moreover, on more than one occassion, he and the CEO seem to be daring the SEC to sue Coinbase. Frankly, I would have expected a much more sophisticated approach given the stakes involved. Their reactions suggest that they believe Coinbase is in serious trouble and they don’t know exactly what to do. Along with media onslaught, Coinbase has also taken to the courts, making a number of filings in various federal courts, including, just recently, a lawsuit against the SEC. Coinbase may mean well with some of these actions, but they don’t seem at all effective to me.
I am almost certain that Coinbase has spent gobs and gobs of money since last summer on lawyers and consultants to fend off the inevitable. Under the circumstances, I question whether that was money well spent. Time will tell. Check back in toward the end of the month.